Generated Title: Van de Ven's "Messi Moment": Just a Statistical Outlier, Or Sign of Spurs' Future?
The Anatomy of a Viral Goal
Micky van de Ven's goal against Copenhagen is being hailed as a moment of pure brilliance, a defender channeling his inner Messi. The Athletic even quoted Spurs head coach Thomas Frank saying it seemed like they "had Lionel Messi turned into Micky van de Ven." But let's dissect this from a purely statistical perspective. We're talking about a single goal, after all. Is it truly representative of a shift in Tottenham's strategy, or just a glorious outlier?
The raw data paints a compelling picture. Tottenham's xG (expected goals) for the match was 3.31, dwarfing Copenhagen's paltry 0.33. Van de Ven's goal, a solo effort from his own half, certainly contributed to that figure, but it's crucial to remember that xG is an aggregate metric. It doesn't tell us how likely a specific player is to score from a given position, only the average probability based on historical data.
The numbers also show that Brennan Johnson received a red card. Johnson became the first British player to get sent off and score in a Champions League match.
The goal itself, as described by multiple sources, involved Van de Ven picking up the ball outside his own box, surging forward, and unleashing a shot past the Copenhagen keeper. It's undeniably reminiscent of Son Heung-Min's Puskas Award-winning goal against Burnley in 2019. But here's the rub: Son is a forward, whose job is to score goals. Van de Ven is a center-back. The statistical probability of a center-back scoring a goal like that is significantly lower.
Udogie, Odobert, and the Shifting Left Flank
Beyond Van de Ven's individual brilliance, the game highlighted a potential tactical shift on Tottenham's left flank. The partnership between Destiny Udogie and Wilson Odobert seems to be clicking, offering a dynamic attacking threat that was previously missing.
One source notes that Udogie and Odobert were trading which player goes forward on the overlap. This tactical flexibility caused confusion in the Copenhagen back line. Udogie had a shot saved in the first half. Odobert played a beautiful flick for a move that Kolo Muani should have finished.
The Athletic's Jack Pitt-Brooke asks whether Udogie and Odobert are the answer on Tottenham’s left.
This improved attacking output on the left is quantifiable. Spurs had struggled to stretch the game and often got clogged up when they tried to go forward. But finally, they looked expansive and dangerous again here when attacking down that side. Udogie and Odobert put in their best performances of the season, displays that fans will hope point to a brighter future.
Xavi Simons also had a standout performance, providing a perfectly-weighted through ball for Johnson's opening goal. It's worth recalling that Simons arrived knowing Spurs had initially hoped to sign Morgan Gibbs-White or Eberechi Eze. Simons showed his class tonight.
The Kotarski Catastrophe: A Goalkeeping Debacle
Let's not mince words: Copenhagen's goalkeeper, Dominik Kotarski (or Keeper McMustache, as one source delightfully calls him), had a disastrous game. He made mistakes on each of Spurs’ opening two goals and then let in two more with his team down a man. The numbers don't fully capture the extent of his errors, but they do hint at it.
Kotarski's attempted clearance led directly to Odobert's goal. He rushed out unnecessarily for Johnson's opener. He generally looked shaky and indecisive throughout the match. While it's tempting to focus solely on Tottenham's attacking prowess, it's crucial to acknowledge the significant role played by Kotarski's blunders. The xG of 3.31 for Tottenham might have been significantly lower with a more competent performance between the posts.
Richarlison also missed a penalty off the bar late in the game. Richy had two late headers from Pedro Porro crosses that just didn’t come off.
So, Was It a Fluke, or a Glimpse of Greatness?
Van de Ven's goal was spectacular, no doubt. And the improved performance on the left flank is encouraging. But let's not get carried away. One game, even a 4-0 victory, doesn't define a season. The opposition mattered, too. Copenhagen's defensive frailties and Kotarski's goalkeeping howlers significantly contributed to the scoreline. Is this a turning point for Spurs? I'd say it's too early to tell, but the underlying data suggests a potential for improvement, if they can maintain this level of attacking intent and shore up their defensive vulnerabilities.
